Navigating the next steps in the Cyprus issue

The Cyprus problem is entering an intriguing phase following the UN Secretary General's Personal Envoy, Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar's, rounds of contacts - including three visits to Cyprus and diplomatic engagements in Greece, the UK, Turkey, Berlin, Paris, Brussels, and Moscow. Discussions during Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' visit to Ankara, alongside statements from Turkish President Erdogan regarding Cyprus, add to the complexity. The upcoming milestone in New York this September underscores the urgency to break the deadlock or restart Cyprus talks.

What to expect

Despite Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar's rejection of a trilateral meeting with the UN Personal Envoy and President Christodoulides during her Cyprus visit, Holguin Cuellar will proceed with two key steps:
1. Detailed briefings to the five permanent Security Council members.
2. Preparation and submission of a progress report on the Cyprus problem, reflecting her observations since her arrival months ago.

It's now evident that Holguin Cuellar will consult UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, with subsequent steps resting with him. The UN General Assembly in September offers a strategic opportunity for diplomacy, potentially leading to a trilateral or five-party conference akin to the Geneva talks in 2021. Whether this leads to a breakthrough or merely tactical maneuvering remains to be seen in the critical weeks ahead.

Signals from Erdogan

During the Mitsotakis-Erdogan meeting, Erdogan hinted at a solution to the Cyprus problem contributing to stability in the eastern Mediterranean, without explicitly mentioning two states or sovereign equality. Disagreements persist on the Cyprus problem, highlighting the divergent starting positions of the sides, yet Erdogan emphasized dialogue as a means to resolve issues. These statements signal potential directions for future discussions, including the possibility of a trilateral meeting or five-party conference.

Insights from Holguin-Cuellar

In her interview with "K," Holguin Cuellar offered insights into her experience in Cyprus and her efforts to break the deadlock. She criticized Tatar for rejecting a trilateral meeting, suggesting a lack of creativity, while also indicating an understanding of what's required from the Greek Cypriot side to advance the process. These messages are seen as direct appeals to the leaders, particularly addressing Tatar's stance and urging increased cooperation from President Christodoulides.

[This article was translated from its Greek original and edited for clarity and brevity]