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As Cyprus marks the 50th anniversary of its division, a resolution to the longstanding conflict remains elusive. Despite decades of diplomatic efforts, the island remains split between its Greek south and Turkish north, with the status quo appearing increasingly permanent according to an article in The Economist.
Cyprus gained independence from Britain in 1960, but disputes between Greek and Turkish communities quickly escalated. In 1974, a Greek-led coup prompted Turkey to invade, seizing control of the northern third of the island. This region eventually declared itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognized only by Turkey.
International efforts to reunite the island under a "bi-zonal, bi-communal federation" have repeatedly failed, most notably in 2004 and 2017. Currently, Cyprus is experiencing its longest period without significant negotiations. Earlier this year, UN Secretary-General António Guterres appointed María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar to assess the potential for renewed talks, but her findings have not been disclosed.
The persistence of the division is underpinned by political and economic factors. "The Cyprus problem is difficult to solve, but relatively easy to manage," says Hubert Faustmann, a law professor at the University of Nicosia. The term "comfortable conflict," coined by academics Constantinos Adamides and Costas Constantinou, reflects the relatively peaceful nature of the division, contrasting with more violent global conflicts.
Since 2003, both sides have allowed free crossings of the UN-administered buffer zone, fostering a sense of normalcy. Sertac Sonan, a scholar at Cyprus International University, notes that this freedom of movement has been a significant confidence-building measure. Turkish Cypriots frequently cross south for work and shopping, while Greek Cypriots head north for cheaper goods and services.
Economic disparities remain stark. The Greek south enjoys EU membership and higher GDP per capita, while the Turkish north relies heavily on Turkey for economic support. Many Turkish-Cypriots hold the Republic of Cyprus passports, granting them EU benefits, further reducing the incentive for unification.
The discovery of offshore gas deposits, initially seen as a potential catalyst for reconciliation, has instead fueled further disputes. Turkish Cypriots increasingly favor a two-state solution over any form of federation.
The prolonged division seems to have entrenched itself. "The longer the division continues, the more concrete it gets," says Ahmet Sözen, a political scientist at Eastern Mediterranean University. For many on both sides, the status quo, though imperfect, has become a sustainable reality.
