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The recent election victory of Tufan Erhurman in the occupied north of Cyprus marks more than a simple leadership change: it reflects a reshaping of Turkish Cypriot political identity, according to research by the University of Cyprus.
A large house-to-house survey of 800 residents conducted just before the October 19 “elections” revealed a growing dissatisfaction with the two-state solution promoted by outgoing leader Ersin Tatar and Ankara. Support for a two-state approach fell by roughly 15 percentage points compared with 2020, while rejection of the status quo nearly doubled, from 20.8% to 36%. In contrast, support for a bizonal bicommunal federation (BBF) remained steady at around 54%, rising to 71% when including those willing to accept it if necessary, a level comparable to support among Greek Cypriots.
According to the research, four factors combined to drive Erhurman’s win. First, he framed his platform around ending the status quo through federal talks aligned with UN parameters, appealing to voters frustrated by stalled negotiations and the perceived lack of political will on the Greek Cypriot side.
Second, economic fatigue played a major role. Inflation and the collapse of the Turkish lira weakened Tatar’s credibility, prompting a shift among middle-class voters to Erhurman’s camp.
Third, voters reacted against overreliance on Ankara, with around 70% of those concerned about preserving the secular character of the community backing Erhurman. His message of maintaining autonomy resonated across both left- and right-leaning constituents.
Finally, Tatar’s perceived lack of credibility contrasted with Erhurman’s image as moderate, professional, and reliable. Erhurman drew support beyond his own Republican Turkish Party (CTP), attracting voters from the Democratic Party and smaller factions.
The survey highlighted voters’ key concerns: economy (26.7%), Cyprus-related issues (25.4%), corruption (16.1%), and healthcare (13.2%), showing that identity and governance mattered as much as finances.
“Erhurman’s victory is not just a change of leadership but a refocusing of the Turkish Cypriot political identity,” the university statement said. Analysts see the election as opening a window for a diplomatic restart, with potential for institutional reform, transparency, and renewed federal negotiations that could bring Turkish Cypriot politics onto a more progressive, European-aligned path.
