Kathimerini Greece Newsroom
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election will lead to significant global changes, according to retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis. In an exclusive (email) interview with Kathimerini's Yannis Palaiologos, Stavridis, who previously served as NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, warned that Trump's return to the White House will affect geopolitics in several major ways.
Stavridis, analyzing the potential consequences of Trump’s presidency, predicted that the U.S. will likely continue its skeptical stance toward NATO. While the U.S. leaving the alliance is unlikely, Stavridis said Trump would pressure European countries to increase defense spending. He suggested that Trump could push for a minimum of 3% of GDP, far above the current NATO target of 2%, a goal many European nations have failed to meet. This could strain the cohesion within NATO, weakening its collective power.
In Ukraine, Stavridis foresees Trump pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia to end the ongoing conflict. He believes that Russia could gain control over significant Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas region, which make up around 20% of Ukraine's land area. Stavridis also warned that Russia may demand guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO or the EU.
Regarding the Middle East, Stavridis expects U.S. support for Israel to remain strong under Trump. He also anticipates harsher policies toward Iran, including potential military action if Iran pursues nuclear weapons. Trump may seek to build on the Abraham Accords, turning them into a broader alliance that includes security guarantees for Israel and Gulf Arab nations.
On the economic front, Stavridis predicts that Trump will continue to target China with high tariffs, using them as leverage to open Chinese markets to U.S. companies. He also warned that such measures could escalate into a global trade war, as China and other countries retaliate. In Asia, Trump will pressure Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to increase their defense spending, particularly by purchasing U.S. weapons.
Climate change policies are expected to take a backseat during Trump’s second term, with Stavridis forecasting a withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and an emphasis on drilling for oil and gas over renewable energy sources.
However, Stavridis also noted that U.S.-Greece relations are likely to remain strong, with continued cooperation in defense, including access to naval bases and joint military exercises.
In summary, Trump's return to the presidency will likely lead to more aggressive foreign policies, with a focus on defense spending, trade negotiations, and strong support for Israel, while shifting away from climate change efforts and cooperation within international organizations like NATO and the EU.
