The good, the bad, and the in-between: Cyprus talks in Geneva

Preparatory efforts for the informal Cyprus conference, scheduled for March 17-18 in Geneva, Switzerland, reached a peak this past week, with both organizational work from the United Nations and diplomatic efforts from the parties involved. This conference will be the first official attempt by the UN to assess whether a resumption of dialogue is possible after the collapse of negotiations in Crans-Montana in 2017.

Although there are low expectations for tangible outcomes from the conference, Kathimerini's Yiannis Ioannou says observers now acknowledge that the meeting won’t mark the end of Cyprus’ long-running negotiations. However, there is potential for a range of outcomes, from positive to negative, or even something more intermediate.

The UN has laid out the structure for the event, with a formal lunch hosted by the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, on the opening day, followed by his one-on-one meetings with the involved parties on the second day. In a move that challenges the “4+1” conference model suggested by the Tatar side, the three guarantor powers—Greece, Turkey, and the UK—will have high-level representation, including foreign ministers from both Greece and Turkey, and the British Secretary of State for European Affairs.

Three potential outcomes

As preparations unfold, three main scenarios have emerged for the Geneva conference, which could lead to good, bad, or intermediate outcomes:

1. The good scenario: A positive atmosphere at the conference could lead to an extension of the dialogue process. While no breakthrough is expected, a consensus on practical issues—such as the opening of new crossing points or confidence-building measures—could keep the talks alive and avoid deadlock. There could also be a return to discussions by 2026, potentially after leadership changes in the Turkish Cypriot community, such as the removal of Ersin Tatar.

2. The bad scenario: If both sides stick rigidly to their positions, the conference could end in a declaration of deadlock. This would mark a significant setback, with the UN potentially intervening through the Security Council to adjust the historical framework for resolving the Cyprus issue.

3. The intermediate scenario: A compromise could emerge in which Guterres attempts to bridge the gap between the two sides. This could involve a shift toward a solution based on sovereign equality, though this would likely fall short of meeting the expectations of the Greek Cypriot side. In this scenario, issues like direct trade and relations with the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) could become part of the discussions.

The conference's outcome will likely blend elements of these scenarios, but one thing is clear: Geneva will not restart Cyprus negotiations nor announce a conclusive deadlock.

Diplomatic efforts ahead of the conference

Diplomatic preparations have been in full swing, with the President of Cyprus visiting Athens for key coordination meetings. Given the timing of the informal conference, which will be followed by the Greece-Turkey High Council, Nicosia-Athens coordination is a priority. The UK’s European Affairs Minister, Stephen Doughty, also visited Cyprus, meeting with both leaders and key officials to discuss the situation.