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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El Niño conditions are taking shape in the tropical Pacific and are likely to influence weather patterns across the globe during the coming months. The agency estimates an 80% chance that El Niño will be present between June and August 2026, with the likelihood climbing to around 90% or higher through at least November.
According to the WMO, unusually warm waters beneath and at the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are driving the phenomenon. Measurements taken from late April through mid-May showed sea-surface temperatures nearing El Niño thresholds, while subsurface waters were more than 6°C warmer than average in some areas. Atmospheric indicators, including the Southern Oscillation Index, also point toward the development of El Niño conditions.
Forecast models suggest the event is likely to reach at least moderate strength and could become stronger later in the year. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said preparations should begin now because El Niño can increase the chances of drought, heavy rainfall and heatwaves on land and in the oceans. She noted that the 2023–24 El Niño ranked among the five strongest ever recorded and contributed to the exceptionally high global temperatures observed in 2024.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern that affects weather around the world. It usually develops every two to seven years, lasts around nine to twelve months and tends to peak between November and February. The strongest effects on global temperatures are often felt during the year after it forms.
While each event behaves differently, El Niño is commonly linked to wetter conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia. In contrast, regions such as Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia often experience drier weather.
Seasonal outlooks issued by regional climate centres already point to possible impacts. Forecasts indicate reduced rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the June-to-September rainy season. South Asia is also expected to receive below-average monsoon rainfall, while Central America is forecast to experience warmer and drier conditions.
The WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update projects above-normal temperatures across almost the entire planet during June, July and August. Such conditions can increase heat-related risks and accelerate drought development where rainfall is limited. Rainfall forecasts also reflect patterns typically associated with El Niño, increasing the likelihood of both flooding and drought in different regions.
The agency stressed that modern forecasting systems give governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water management valuable time to plan ahead. Early warnings and seasonal forecasts, the WMO says, remain essential tools for reducing the impact of severe weather on communities and economies.
Scientists emphasize that there is no evidence that climate change increases how often El Niño occurs or how strong it becomes. However, a warmer atmosphere and ocean can intensify the consequences of El Niño by providing additional energy and moisture for events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
With information from the World Meteorological Organization.
