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Santorini, known for its breathtaking caldera and whitewashed homes, is also home to one of the world’s most closely monitored volcanoes. Scientists have been tracking changes beneath the island, and recent seismic activity suggests that magma is on the move—though what that means for the future remains uncertain.
Emily Hooft, a geophysicist at the University of Oregon, has been listening to the “breathing” of Santorini’s volcano for years. She describes the current activity as a possible lateral movement of magma beneath the earth’s crust, originating northeast of Santorini near the small island of Anhydra.
“We’re seeing deep magma shifts, but not necessarily leading to an eruption,” Hooft explains. “The earthquakes that come with this movement are relieving pressure beneath Santorini, which might actually reduce the likelihood of immediate volcanic activity.”
Hooft, along with a team of Greek and international researchers, has been studying the region since 2012. Their findings indicated that the magma chamber beneath Santorini’s Columbo volcano could, under the right conditions, become active. Now, with subtle signs of “recharging,” she is preparing to return to Greece to continue monitoring developments firsthand.
Will Santorini’s Volcano Erupt?
While the idea of an eruption may sound alarming, Hooft stresses that most magma movements never reach the surface. “Many times, magma enters the crust and stays there,” she says. “However, there’s always a small chance that it could break through. Right now, the most likely location for such an event would be underwater, southwest of Anhydra.”
If an eruption were to occur, it might not be a dramatic event. “A submarine eruption wouldn’t necessarily pose a threat to Santorini,” she says. “However, if ash were released into the air, air travel and local respiratory conditions could be affected.”
Greek scientists, who have been closely monitoring the island for decades, are well-prepared for any developments. “It’s always better to be ready,” Hooft says. “The challenge is balancing preparation with public concern. If we warn too much, people panic. If we say too little, we risk being accused of not raising the alarm.”
The Science Behind the Monitoring
Hooft’s passion for volcanoes began in childhood, long before she became a leading expert in the field. Originally drawn to space science, she shifted focus when she realized that “miracles happen right here on Earth.”
Her early studies took her to volcanoes in Oregon, but it was Santorini that captured her imagination. “In 2011, I read that the volcano was ‘swelling’—a sign that magma was moving upwards. I knew I had to get involved,” she recalls. She soon became part of an international team studying the region’s seismic activity.
Beyond its scientific significance, Santorini holds personal meaning for Hooft. Her grandfather once served as the Dutch ambassador to Greece, and her family has long had ties to the nearby island of Amorgos. “I grew up visiting Greece, and I even learned Greek as a student,” she says.
How Climate Change Could Play a Role
Interestingly, volcanic activity may also be influenced by climate change. Studies suggest that changes in sea level could alter the pressure on volcanic systems. “When sea levels drop, there’s less weight pressing down on magma chambers, which could make eruptions more likely,” Hooft explains. Similar patterns were observed in Iceland, where melting glaciers reduced surface pressure, triggering volcanic activity.
What’s Next?
For now, scientists remain in observation mode. While there has been some “recharging” of the magma chamber in recent months, Hooft and her colleagues aren’t yet certain whether this is the start of something larger or simply another cycle in the volcano’s long history.
“Volcanoes teach us patience,” she says. “We have to keep watching, learning, and staying prepared.”
