Are the stars finally aligning for Cyprus?

A series of new developments, diplomatic chatter, quiet backroom meetings, and carefully timed statements are fueling talk that something may finally be stirring in the long-stuck Cyprus and East Med equation.

The big question: could all these signs actually add up to a fresh push for solving the region’s overlapping disputes and perhaps even breathe life into the frozen Cyprus talks?

A flurry of behind-the-scenes moves

According to Kathimerini's Thanasis Photiou, since early this year, Washington has been quietly assessing its military and strategic footprint in the region, including a U.S. inspection of the Andreas Papandreou airbase in Paphos, with a proposed €14 million upgrade already in the works.

Meanwhile, a swirl of diplomatic visits has drawn attention. Donald Trump’s close adviser and son-in-law’s father, Massad Boulos, recently met with key figures in Libya, Turkey, and Greece, a triangle that has long shaped the region’s energy and security politics.

Not long after, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis floated a new idea: a “Forum of Eastern Mediterranean Coastal States”, bringing together Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Turkey, and Libya to discuss maritime boundaries. It’s an ambitious pitch that could either pave the way for dialogue or open a new front of political tension.

Turkey, as expected, wasted no time responding, welcoming the Greek proposal as one that “finally aligns” with Ankara’s own ideas but insisting that Turkish Cypriots must have a seat at the table.

A “moderate” in the occupied north

Adding another twist, the occupied north elected Tufan Erhurman, a moderate politician, with a strong 62.8% victory on October 19, ousting the hardliner Ersin Tatar. Erhurman’s win is seen by many as a potential turning point: he campaigned on restarting talks with the Republic of Cyprus after years of stalemate.

While analysts are cautious, some believe his rise could help thaw relations if Ankara allows him any room to move.

Energy and geopolitics

At the same time, the U.S. seems keen to ease tensions that are stalling major energy projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, projects that could benefit multiple countries while reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.

Sources in Greece say new exploratory activity for underwater power and energy links could restart soon, including the long-discussed electric interconnection between Greece and Cyprus, which Turkey has previously obstructed with naval maneuvers.

If those projects resume without incident, it would be a strong signal that the mood between Ankara and Athens may be shifting toward dialogue, even cautiously.

And what about Trump?

Adding an unexpected twist to this puzzle, an article in the Washington Examiner this month openly asked:

“Is it time for Trump to try to solve the Cyprus problem?”

The piece argues that while every U.S. president since Jimmy Carter has largely ignored Cyprus, the changing dynamics, including a more pro-Western foreign policy under President Nikos Christodoulides, could create a window of opportunity.

As the article notes, “If the Trump White House chooses to engage, it could turn this deadlock into a rare foreign policy success and give new momentum to ending one of Europe’s longest-running divisions.”

Cyprus’s new role

Christodoulides’ government has been steadily tightening ties with Washington and Brussels, stepping away from decades of quiet reliance on Moscow. Cyprus has signaled interest in NATO membership, cracked down on illicit Russian funds, and deepened its security cooperation with Israel.

All of this, analysts say, strengthens Cyprus’s position at a time when Washington appears to be rethinking its strategic presence in the region.

For now, it’s too early to call it a breakthrough, but the pieces are definitely moving.

Whether the stars truly align this time or just tease us again before drifting apart remains to be seen.