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A ''crack'' has opened in the decades-old Cyprus problem, and the Greek Cypriot side must seize the moment, says former UN negotiator and presidential candidate Andreas Mavroyiannis.
Speaking to Kathimerini's Andreas Kimitris, Mavroyiannis described the election of Tufan Erhürman as the new Turkish Cypriot leader as a positive and potentially game-changing development, noting that Turkey did not block his rise, a signal, he says, that Ankara may be open to some movement on the Cyprus issue, even if it hasn’t abandoned its two-state rhetoric.
“We must be credible, consistent, and ready to move. This time, we can’t afford to miss the opening.” --Andreas Mavroyiannis
“It opens a crack, and we must exploit it,” Mavroyiannis stressed, adding that this new opening must not be wasted by procedural delays or mixed messages from Nicosia.
He praised Erhürman as a moderate and honest politician, someone who “believes in reunification” and with whom meaningful negotiations could take place, though he warned against assuming he will be “an easy interlocutor.”
Mavroyiannis believes that under Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Ankara has slightly adjusted its foreign policy, seeking to avoid total stagnation on Cyprus and polish its image in the EU and the Eastern Mediterranean. However, he emphasized that the two-state position remains tactical, not a genuine long-term strategy.
A chance to restart talks, if Cyprus plays its cards right
He expects that the first step could be a shift away from Turkey’s precondition of two states or “sovereign equality”, allowing room for substantive talks.
Mavroyiannis urged President Nikos Christodoulides to reaffirm at the next informal conference that Cyprus wants to continue from where negotiations left off at Crans-Montana in 2017, using the Guterres framework as the foundation.
But he was blunt in his criticism of the current leadership’s credibility abroad.
“Our side has so far failed to convince anyone that we mean business,” he said, suggesting that the UN and other players see Cyprus as procedurally willing but not substantively committed to real progress.
Turkey’s wider motives
According to Mavroyiannis, Turkey now has several practical reasons to show flexibility, including its interest in joining the EU’s SAFE defense program, modernizing its customs union, and restarting visa liberalization talks. He believes Turkey wants to “rejoin a Western-oriented system” after years of geopolitical turbulence.
He also welcomed Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ proposal for an Eastern Mediterranean conference involving Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Egypt and Libya, saying it could give new life to regional dialogue on maritime borders and security.
The next steps
With UN envoy María Ángela Holguín expected in Cyprus in early November to prepare for a new informal five-party meeting, Mavroyiannis said Nicosia’s role is crucial. Cyprus, he said, must stick to the convergences achieved in 2017, particularly on security and guarantees, and show clear political will to reach a strategic agreement that could make the peace process “irreversible.”
As for Erhürman, Mavroyiannis believes he will remain in coordination with Ankara but will make the most of whatever space Turkey allows him.
If Erhürman signals readiness for talks, Mavroyiannis warned, the onus will shift to the Greek Cypriot side to prove it’s equally ready to move forward, not just in words, but in actions.
“We must be credible, consistent, and ready to move. This time, we can’t afford to miss the opening.”
