Yiannis Ioannou
In one of the most pivotal U.S. elections in recent decades, the nation heads to the polls today as Kamala Harris faces off against Donald Trump. The race appears tight, polarizing American society while drawing worldwide attention. With an estimated 150 million voters out of 244 million likely to turn out, here’s what you need to know.
Don’t expect immediate results
We won’t know the outcome immediately. The U.S. spans multiple time zones, with polls in Indiana and Kentucky closing at midnight Cyprus time, while voting in Alaska ends at 7 p.m. Cyprus time on Wednesday. In 2020, it took four days to confirm results, and a similar delay is possible given the contentious nature of this election.
The Electoral College: It’s about electors, not votes
The U.S. election operates through the Electoral College, where 538 electors ultimately decide the presidency. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. Each state’s number of electors is based on its congressional representation, and even Washington, D.C. has three electors. While rare, a tie could happen. In such a case, the House of Representatives elects the President, while the Senate selects the Vice President. Notably, it’s possible to win the popular vote but lose the election, as Al Gore did against George W. Bush in 2000 and Hillary Clinton against Trump in 2016.
The key states: “7 plus 1”
The election outcome hinges on key battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nebraska:
Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin): Historically Democratic strongholds with large working-class populations, these states backed Trump in 2016 but swung to Biden in 2020.
Sun Belt (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia): Traditionally Republican, these states are known for shifting support. Obama won North Carolina in 2008, while Trump won it in 2016 and 2020. Biden captured Georgia and Arizona in 2020—the first Democratic victories there since Clinton in the ’90s.
Nebraska: Known for splitting electoral votes by district, Nebraska’s Omaha area could be critical, where Trump is underperforming.
Opinion polls suggest a close race
In a final New York Times/Siena College poll, the race in the seven critical states remains extremely close. Kamala Harris holds a slight edge in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump leads narrowly in Arizona. Margins between the two are within 3.5%, within the poll’s margin of error. Notably, 40% of respondents have already voted, with Harris showing an 8-point lead among early voters. Trump, however, leads among those likely to vote on Election Day.
Polling by Economist/YouGov gives Harris a slight 49%-47% advantage, while Reuters/Ipsos also shows her ahead, 44%-43%. Participation will be crucial, with the election expected to be decided by razor-thin margins.
Voting beyond the Presidency
The U.S. Constitution’s checks and balances mean Americans aren’t just voting for the President today. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 Senate seats are also on the ballot. Senators serve six-year terms, with roughly a third up for election every two years.
With high stakes and anticipated delays, today’s election is poised to shape America’s future and reverberate globally.
