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Cyprus’ prospects for NATO membership appear dim, with Turkish Ambassador Ulutç Özülker and other prominent Turkish figures emphasizing Ankara's veto power. The remarks follow reports that Cyprus President Nicos Christodoulides presented a long-term NATO membership plan to U.S. President Joe Biden on October 30.
Turkey's Stance: A Firm No
Ambassador Özülker dismissed the possibility outright, comparing the situation to Turkey’s veto of Sweden’s NATO bid. "Turkey will not allow southern Cyprus [Republic of Cyprus] to join NATO, just as we blocked Sweden's membership without our consent," he said.
He also cited historical precedents, including Turkey's veto of Cyprus joining the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), even without a formal veto right. "Turkey has the power to leverage its rights in international organizations, and Cyprus will not move forward without Ankara's approval," he stressed.
Academic and Political Commentary
Hassan Ünal, an academic and adviser to the Turkish Cypriot leadership, speculated that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s recent visit to Ankara may have been tied to discussions on Cyprus’ bid. Ünal proposed that Turkey should condition its approval on international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the self-declared state recognized only by Turkey.
He argued that such a move could benefit NATO, allowing both the Republic of Cyprus and the TRNC to join the alliance, potentially resolving the Cyprus issue under a two-state framework. "This would also be in NATO’s interest," Ünal claimed, while warning against EU "deceptions" that might pressure Turkey to concede.
Far-right politician Ümit Özdağ supported Ünal’s analysis, suggesting that NATO discussions could serve as a platform for advancing Turkey’s demands.
Alternative Scenarios and Speculation
Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish Foreign Ministry official, suggested on social media that Cyprus’ NATO membership could only happen if Turkey accepts a trade-off, such as U.S. concessions on Syria or Aegean issues. He floated the idea of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation in Cyprus, where two politically equal entities could join NATO as a unified state under specific conditions.
Broader Implications
Turkey’s resistance underscores its strategic leverage in NATO and international organizations, using these platforms to reinforce its geopolitical goals, particularly regarding Cyprus. While Cyprus has expressed interest in joining NATO, Turkey’s firm stance and the complex web of regional dynamics make the prospect highly improbable without significant concessions or a transformative resolution to the longstanding Cyprus conflict.
