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The rise of far-right, anti-immigration politics across Europe is threatening to accelerate the continent’s demographic decline, experts warn, potentially triggering economic instability, labor shortages, and soaring costs for elderly care. For Cyprus, a country already grappling with an aging population and labor market challenges, this shift could have significant consequences.
Europe’s Shrinking Workforce – The Immigration Factor
Recent projections by Eurostat, the EU’s official statistics agency, paint a stark picture: under current migration trends, the EU’s population is expected to shrink by 6% by 2100. But without immigration, that decline would be catastrophic, with the bloc’s population plummeting by over a third.
Countries such as Germany, Italy, and France—where anti-immigration parties are gaining ground—face the most severe declines. Italy’s population, for example, could shrink from 59 million to just 28 million if immigration were halted. Germany’s could drop from 83 million to 53 million.
What This Means for Cyprus
Cyprus is not immune to these demographic trends. Although its population remains stable, the country’s low birth rate and aging workforce raise concerns about long-term sustainability. According to Eurostat’s projections, Cyprus could see its population decline from approximately 1 million today to just 600,000 by 2100 if immigration were restricted.
With an economy heavily reliant on tourism, services, and shipping, Cyprus needs a steady flow of workers to sustain growth. Already, many sectors, from hospitality to construction, are facing staffing shortages—partly filled by foreign workers. A crackdown on immigration across Europe could make it even harder for Cyprus to attract the workforce it needs.
The Political Shift and Its Economic Risks
Far-right, anti-immigration parties have been gaining traction across Europe, advocating for stricter border controls and limits on foreign labor. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is polling second, while Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made migration restrictions a key policy.
Yet, economic experts argue that restricting immigration will only worsen Europe’s labor crisis, increase tax burdens, and strain pension and healthcare systems. In Cyprus, where nearly 21% of the population is over 65 and life expectancy is rising, a declining working-age population could make it harder to support retirees in the decades ahead.
Is Immigration the Only Solution?
While immigration alone won’t solve Europe’s demographic challenges, it is a crucial factor in maintaining economic stability. Other measures, such as increasing retirement ages, reforming pension systems, and encouraging higher birth rates, will also be necessary.
For Cyprus, attracting skilled foreign workers, supporting young families, and creating policies that encourage Cypriots abroad to return home could help mitigate the impact of demographic decline. However, as anti-immigration sentiment spreads across the EU, securing the workforce needed for future growth could become an uphill battle.
*Source: The Guardian
