Newsroom
Cyprus is expected to become one of the few European Union countries with a larger population by the end of the century, even as Europe as a whole faces long-term decline and rapid ageing. New Eurostat projections show that demographic change across the continent will reshape economies, labour markets and public services over the next 75 years, with Cyprus standing out as one of the more stable cases.
Across the EU, the population is projected to rise only slightly during the next few years, climbing from 451.8 million people in 2025 to a peak of 453.3 million in 2029. After that, numbers are expected to fall steadily, reaching 445 million by 2050 and dropping below 400 million by 2100. Overall, the bloc is projected to lose around 53 million residents by the end of the century.
Cyprus, however, is among the smaller group of countries expected to avoid severe long-term population decline. While many eastern and southern European states are forecast to shrink sharply, Cyprus is projected to continue recording periods of demographic growth, mainly because of migration.
The figures suggest that births alone will not be enough to sustain the island’s population over time. Eurostat expects Cyprus to begin with a positive natural population balance, meaning births outnumber deaths, before eventually shifting into negative territory later in the century as the population grows older. This places Cyprus alongside Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Sweden and Denmark, all of which are expected to experience an early demographic surplus before ageing pressures intensify.
Migration is projected to become the key factor preventing Cyprus from following the steeper declines forecast elsewhere in Europe. Eurostat’s baseline scenario shows that countries maintaining population growth over the coming decades will do so mainly because more people arrive than leave. Without migration, the EU’s demographic picture would deteriorate far more quickly. Under a “zero migration” scenario, Europe’s population would fall toward 270 million by 2100 instead of just under 400 million.
Cyprus is also expected to experience one of the sharpest ageing shifts in Europe. The median age on the island is projected to rise by more than ten years by 2100, placing Cyprus among the oldest societies in the EU by the end of the century. Eurostat projections indicate that the country’s median age could climb above 53 years, joining countries such as Italy, Portugal, Spain and Poland in the highest age bracket.
The ageing trend is visible across the entire continent. In 2025, Europe’s population pyramid still shows large working-age groups supporting smaller elderly generations. By 2100, that structure changes dramatically. Younger age groups narrow because of lower birth rates, while the number of older residents expands significantly. The result is a much heavier burden on the working population.
By the end of the century, more than one-third of the EU population is expected to be aged 65 or over. Today, that group accounts for just over one-fifth of Europeans. At the same time, the working-age population is projected to shrink heavily, both in percentage terms and absolute numbers.
The dependency ratio, which measures how many elderly people are supported by the working-age population, is forecast to rise steeply. In 2025, Europe has roughly one pension-age resident for every three working-age adults. By 2100, projections suggest there could be almost two elderly people for every three workers.
For Cyprus, this could place increasing pressure on pensions, healthcare systems and long-term care services. At the same time, labour shortages may become more common unless immigration continues to offset the decline in younger age groups. Countries attracting working-age migrants are expected to slow the pace of ageing compared with states losing younger residents through emigration.
The European picture remains uneven. Luxembourg and Malta are expected to record the largest population increases by 2100, while Ireland and Sweden are also projected to grow strongly. At the opposite end, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland could lose more than 30 percent of their populations. Germany is expected to remain the EU’s most populous country despite a substantial decline, while Spain is projected to continue growing modestly.
Eurostat stresses that these figures are not fixed predictions but long-term scenarios based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. Even so, the overall direction remains clear. Europe is entering an era defined by fewer births, longer life expectancy and older societies.
