Frontex predicts increased migration from Turkey

Cyprus and Greece are likely to face “increased migration activity’’ from Turkey in the period 2023/2024, EU border agency Frontex says in a risk analysis, published on Monday.

"Developments on the ground" in a number of countries of origin and transit, driven by "global macroeconomic factors" including persistent inflation and global recession, will "negatively impact" on the socioeconomic conditions of large populations and herald an increase in migration flows to Europe, Frontex notes.

By 2023/2024, it is "likely" that the Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes leading respectively from Turkey to Greece and Cyprus and from north Africa to Italy "will see increased migration activity and a higher share of total migration flows to the external borders of the EU," the risk analysis adds.

Last month the EU border agency reported that the Central Mediterranean remained the most active route into the EU in 2023, with over 89,000 detections reported by national authorities in the first seven month of the year, a rise of 115% over the same period in 2022.

This was the highest total on this route for the period January-July since 2017.

Conversely, during the same period arrivals on the Eastern Mediterranean route were said to have fallen by 29% compared to 2022.